Watching and Predicting 2002

On the first Monday of January, testing
begins at Daytona. Thus begins preparations for the 2002 season in earnest.
There are of course issues to anticipate with the coming new year, and Steve
McCormick and Holly
Cain try their hand at such in separate pieces.

McCormick lists eight stories to watch in
2002. He makes no predictions but does offer some questions. They are listed as
follows –

1 – The Winston Cup Championship –
"Don’t let the drivers fool you. The points battle is foremost on their
minds right from the drop of the green flag at Daytona in February."

Therein lies one of the sport’s bigger
problems. The drivers generally are so concerned with points that they race
for them rather than for the wins. Rusty Wallace is almost the last driver who
raced to win races and let the points go where they may. The point race would
be more interesting if it made the drivers race to win instead of to finish.

2 – The Manufacturer Battle – "Can
NASCAR make a truly level playing field?" Yes and no. It will never of
course be truly level, but it will be close to it.

3 – The Rookie Class – "This year’s
(rookie) class includes Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, and Shawna Robinson. Can
any of them find their way to victory lane?" Johnson and Newman might,
though Newman and Johnson looked better in certain races than in a seasonal
grind. Robinson will be lucky to make any races and this makes nonsense of one
of Holly Cain’s predictions – of a top ten for Robinson. Cain writes that
Robinson also faces a struggle in "weathering the cool reception from
some of her male competitors," as if her abysmal driving record somehow
doesn’t give them justification.

4 – The Sophomore Slump – "Can
Kevin Harvick have another great season like in 2001?" Right now I doubt
it, since Robby Gordon has more momentum going plus RCR is breaking in a third
team, and Harvick looked less than amazing in the final quarter of 2001.

5 – Driver Safety – "Look for
safety to once again be foremost in everybody’s mind, especially at Daytona
and Talladega. Will this be the year that NASCAR finds a solution to the restrictor
plate problem?" There is no restrictor plate problem; restrictor plates
are part of the solution. The other part was the roof spoiler, but NASCAR
knuckled under to whining drivers and will test without them in January; but
don’t be surprised if the roof spoiler comes back, since it so obviously
works. That plates are part of the solution is shown by the speed cut-off
point for safety – 180-5 at the biggest tracks, 175 and less on the other
tracks, both in overall speeds and in top-end.

Holly Cain also discusses safety,
writing "NASCAR will be an easy and frequent media target during the
year." Drivers died under the old system, and drivers will inevitably die
under the new "proactive" system. The old system was not responsible
for Earnnardt’s death or anyone else’s, and when drivers inevitably die of
basilar skull fractures while wearing the HANS, will the HANS hysterics look
in the mirror for critical targets for a change?

6 – Fan Safety aka the cooler ban – This
is a non-issue, as fans really should not be bringing coolers into racetracks
anyway, and tracks have begun retracting the cooler bans.

7 – Changes at Roush Racing – I wouldn’t
call Roush’s 2001 season terrible – they won races and were competitive. Buddy
Parrott’s reported departure is a potential big blow, but the Roush
Performance outfit is too big to fall that much. Holly Cain predicts Mark
Martin will win again in 2002, hardly an out-on-a-limb pick.

8 – Budding Rivalries – What was RCR
thinking in hiring Robby Gordon, Steve McCormick? Just his top fifteen at the
Kansas minefield, seventh at Phoenix, and the New Hampshire win. "Watch
for more temper flare-ups and more NASCAR penalties this year." Let’s
hope so, as otherwise the general lack of on-track passion will just get
worse.

Holly Cain adds ten "fearless"
predictions (a few of which are referenced above) that are rather fearful –

– Tony Stewart will ruffle feathers,
likely during Speedweeks – this is a sure thing.

– Sterling Marlin and Jimmy Spencer will
win races – Another no-brainer.

– Robby Gordon will answer his first
career win – Probable.

– NASCAR will finally admit the schedule
is too long – This is nonsensical, for the schedule is NOT too long. Holly
Cain’s choices for cutting dates – a date each from Darlington, Dover, Pocono,
New Hampshire, Martinsville, and Rockingham – make little sense. Pocono and
New Hampshire are in important markets – Pocono is halfway between New York
and Pittsburgh, Loudon is within an hour and change of Boston. Pocono, Dover,
and New Hampshire sell out all their Winston Cup races, and Martinsville is
also a consistent top draw. In contrast, Charlotte and Atlanta do not sell out
all their races; Atlanta in particular has had trouble with sell-out crowds
for several years. Darlington and Rockingham do not sell out their races, but
are within easy range of team shops. If any dates should be cut – and none
should – then Atlanta and Charlotte are better candidates than the others.

– Less tolerance of on-track encounters
– "not with all the safety concerns." Big deal. NASCAR didn’t take
any particular action because none was really warranted.

– Gordon will win another title –
Gordon’s team is "too good," but this is 2002, not 2001.

Predictions are always a crapshoot, but
reasonable objections can usually be raised.