The Prospects of 2003
It is over, it is all over!
Now we know who is in the AFC Playoff picture after 13 teams came down to the
final game – and it even came down to multi-tasking, simultaneously watching the
Patriots rally against the Dolphins, the Panthers sack the Saints out of the
playoffs, and the Browns show Michael Vick’s Falcons what the Dawg Pound means.
The clearness of the playoff picture became more crystal than Martina McBride’s
lovely eyes when the Jets sacked the Packers after cheering the Patriots’ win
over Miami – didn’t the Pats likewise cheer the Jets’ final-game win last year?
So, with the NFL playoffs – uh, p-p-p-PLAYOFFS???? to coin a famous Jim
Mora-ism – now clear, we watch more football while preparing for the second
Super Bowl, NASCAR’s big show on the East Coast. With testing less than two
weeks away, team lineups are (mostly) set, and everyone enters the new year
looking to build on success and overcome failures.
Hazarding to guess how teams will do this coming season is always a risky
proposition, but it’s always worth trying. A team-by-team glance at the field
showsa number of changes, and also a worrisome paucity of the field:
JOE GIBBS RACING – Chevrolet
#20 Tony Stewart
#18 Bobby Labonte
JGR makes a big switch, going back to Chevrolet after six seasons with
Pontiac. They go into 2003 as defending champions, their second title in three
seasons. JGR won four times in 2002 and nabbed $8.4 million.
Tony Stewart is atop the racing world this off-season, and many expect him to
win the title again. Given the level of parity in NASCAR, though, it is an
uphill task defending a title, and there is the prospect of JGR finding that
being small fish in a big engineering pond may not be as effective as their
previous status as big fish in a smaller engineering pond.
The big question revolves around the #18 of Bobby Labonte. With a new crew
chief in Michael McSwain, Labonte enters 2003 after collapsing from title
contention after winning his first career short track race in April. There are
also questions about McSwain, who won with Ricky Rudd but also saw some notable
struggles in his tenure with Robert Yates.
I expect JGR to win some races, but not approach the domination of 2000.
ROUSH PERFORMANCE RACING – Ford
#6 Mark Martin
#16 Greg Biffle
#17 Matt Kenseth
#97 Kurt Busch
#99 Jeff Burton
Ford will have to depend on Roush Racing more than ever now, with its fleet
depleted due to several years of defections. Roush Racing is the hottest team in
the sport right now, off ten wins in 2002 and with the momentum on its side. But
one may have to keep an eye on rumblings that the Ford lost the most front down force
in the switch to aero-matching by NASCAR; if true, it could hurt their title
hopes.
Kurt Busch is the real favorite for the title, with four wins and third in
2002 points. Busch did show some childishness at times, but his consistency grew
as the year elapsed and he wrapped it up with two wins in the final three races.
Matt Kenseth won the most races – five – but was a surprisingly poor eighth
in final points; finishing higher in races he doesn’t win is a goal for the Rob
Reiser team for 2003.
Mark Martin won once and really wasn’t a serious threat for additional wins,
but he hung tough in points all year and hasn’t shown any deterioration of
consistency.
The collapse of this outfit was Jeff Burton, winless for the first time since
1996 despite 14 top ten finishes. A change of crew chiefs gave Burton his first
new wrench since his days with Bill and Micky Stavola, but consistency is hard
to find for anyone and getting more of it is what the #99 can use to get back to
victory.
The newest member of the Winston Cup team is Grand National and Truck
champion Greg Biffle. Curiously, in his occasional Winston Cup starts in 2002
Biffle tended to struggle in Roush’s then-unsponsored #16 Fords (Grainger joins
the team with Biffle this coming season) but showed some real moxie in Andy
Petree’s #55 Chevrolet and the Petty #44 Dodge.
Kenseth and Busch will lead the Roush fleet, while Biffle will likely be top
rookie
HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS – Chevrolet
#5 Terry Labonte
#24 Jeff Gordon
#25 Joe Nemechek
#48 Jimmie Johnson
#0 Jack Sprague (Pontiac)
GM’s designated champions, Hendrick Motorsports faltered from 2001 but still
won six races and $7.7 million. The most wins for Chevrolet will again come from
Joseph R. Hendrick Jr’s garages.
One who won’t win in 2003 is likely Terry Labonte, ignored within Hendrick
since 1998-9 and managing only four top tens in 2002.
Jeff Gordon’s "marital misconduct" squabble made the tabloids but
he still wound up with three wins and a wildcard title shot before the Autumn
500 at Talladega; he fell to sixth in points but wound up fourth in points after
Homestead.
Jimmie Johnson was the hot newcomer of 2002, bagging three wins and briefly
leading the title chase. The sophomore boost hit Tony Stewart in 2000, Dale
Junior in 2001, and even Kevin Harvick in 2002 won a race, so Johnson will
likely win some more this season.
Joe Nemechek was the surprise of the team, showing honest-to-goodness muscle
in his late-season with the #25. But this team had hopes raised with Jerry
Nadeau’s tenure and they wound up falling apart, typifying the bad karma of this
outfit.
A quasi-fifth Hendrick team will run Pontiacs in 2003 with Jack Sprague as
driver. Sprague has struggled to make Winston Cup races and managed only three
2002 starts without anything to show for it. Sprague showed to be overrated in
Grand National despite a win, and will likely struggle in Winston Cup.
Gordon and Johnson will be the winners for Hendrick Motorsports in 2003,
though there is an outside chance Joe Nemechek could win as well.
PENSKE RACING SOUTH – Dodge
#2 Rusty Wallace
#12 Ryan Newman
The rookie of the year despite having just one win to Jimmie Johnson’s three,
Ryan Newman bagged more top fives than Johnson and won more money – $4.3 million
to Johnson’s $2.8 million. He’s also rejuvenated Penske Racing via his
engineering background and looks to be easing toward first-team status within
the organization.
Rusty Wallace, meanwhile, failed to win for the first time since 1985 –
getting punted out of the win (again) by Jeff Gordon at Bristol hurt the most –
but still had a good season, seventh in points. He and Newman now face the task
of running Dodge Intrepids after nine seasons with Ford; at least this
manufacturer switch isn’t as rancorous as the switch from Pontiac to Ford. The
acquisition of Penske Racing and its vast engineering empire was a goal of
Dodge, to give its fleet an engineering shot in the arm.
So Penske Racing should have both teams back in victory.
ROBERT YATES RACING – Ford
#38 Elliott Sadler
#88 Dale Jarrett
Ricky Rudd’s rancorous divorce from Yates was the running soap opera of 2002
and the team suffered as a result, despite always-solid numbers from both
efforts – a combined three wins, 15 additional top fives, and 12 additional top
tens. Yates appeared beginning to ease out of team ownership, with his son Doug
looking like the heir apparent.
Dale Jarrett gets a new crew chief with Todd Parrott’s elevation in the
organization, while the team immortalized by Davey Allison and Ernie Irvan
becomes a whole new effort, with a new sponsor and new number as well as new
driver with good credentials – though reports that Michael McSwain quit because
of a poor test session with Elliott Sadler should be kept in the back of the
mind.
Overall there should not be much different from 2002 here.
EARNHARDT INCORPORATED – Chevrolet
#1 Steve Park
#8 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
#15 Michael Waltrip
Junior had no shot at any title in 2002, and frankly I doubt his fans
particularly care if he never wins a title. He wins races, and that’s what
matters most. He swept Talladega in 2002 and ran well most other tracks, and is
the big favorite for Speedweeks, though the switch to aero-matched Chevrolets
may take a few races to adjust to.
His teammate Michael Waltrip had what turned out to be a mini-banner year –
on the chopping block even early in 2002, Mikey and Richard Labbe suddenly got
in gear at the World 600, and Mikey crafted a surprisingly consistent season,
ultimately winning the Firecracker 400 under rancorous circumstances. Having
broken the fourth wall, Mikey is under pressure to break the fifth wall, and win
someplace other than a restrictor plate track.
Steve Park was the comeback story of this team’s season, and also the biggest
letdown after taking the lead at the Rebel 400. Given his 2001 injury, a poor
season was hardly unexpected. He did manage two top tens, including a stellar
sixth at the Autumn 500 at Talladega.
Unlike a lot of people, I expect DEI not to dominate the plate tracks this
year, but instead to win at places like Atlanta, Charlotte, and the short
tracks.
RAY EVERNHAM MOTORSPORTS – Dodge
#9 Bill Elliott
#19 Jeremy Mayfield
ULTRA MOTOTSPORTS – Dodge
#7 Casey Atwood (2002)
Team ownership sure isn’t like the 1990s, is it, Ray? Evernham nonetheless
bagged two victories, including a third Brickyard 400, thanks to primary driver
Bill Elliott. The team’s consistency, though, was spotty; Elliott was timid at
the plate tracks again and was too low in points to finish in the top ten. He
nonetheless had a season few would trade.
Not so effective was the perennial stepchild #19 team. Jeremy Mayfield
finished second at Vegas but only four top tens total showed how little this
team gets compared to the main #9; it also raised some questions about Mayfield,
who reportedly clashed with his teams in his previous engagements.
The mini-scandal was the treatment of the Jim Smith #7 team, an Evernham
satellite effort in 2002; given weak engines (and one can guess also inferior
chassis) by Evernham, Jim Smith, already embroiled in an unrelated scandal in
California, dumped Evernham late in 2002 and used Petty Enterprises engines
built by Mike Ege’s shop; this may yet lead to some kind of Petty-Ultra
Motorsports alliance, as Smith’s team needs such to be competitive. A driver has
not yet been named, though Jimmy Spencer is the rumored choice.
Elliott should win again in 2003; Mayfield is on the bubble and may wind up
driving another car by the Firecracker 400.
PPI MOTORSPORTS – Pontiac
#32 Ricky Craven
Ricky Craven wanted another win in 2002; he didn’t get it. He did have a
competitive season, by far the best of the sport’s small number of solo-car
teams, and reunites with General Motors with Cal Wells’ switch to Pontiacs and
the opening of an in-house engine program; PPI will likely be the main
development team for Pontiac with JGR gone to Chevrolet. Of Pontiac’s outgunned
squadron, Craven may have the best shot at a win.
RICHARD CHILDRESS RACING ENTERPRISES – Chevrolet
#29 Kevin Harvick
#30 Jeff Green
#31 Robby Gordon
On paper a win, all three teams in the top 21 in points, a combined ten top
fives, and $9.8 million in winnings are positive numbers. For RCR, they are an
ominous slide. Only Jeff Green cracked the top 18 in points, and RCR’s attempt
to recruit Green’s former crew chief Harold Holly was a failure. Kevin Harvick’s
bullying approach (a natural given the Goodwrench legacy) won him a tardy and
insufficient one-race suspension and appeared to take some fire out of him.
Robby Gordon, meanwhile, had the poorest numbers of the team, just one top five
and four other top tens. RCR can certainly win more in 2003, but their slide
from 2002 may not be over.
GANASSI/SABCO RACING – Dodge
#40 Sterling Marlin
#41 Casey Mears
#42 Jamie McMurray
This was one of those "You’ve got to be kidding!" stories of the
season. Jamie McMurray replaced Marlin after two bad wrecks left a cervical bone
within a disturbing distance of paralyzing Marlin, and ended Marlin’s strongest
title shot ever, coming after two March wins and a pile of top tens. McMurray
did a Kevin Harvick of 2001, driving the same car the well-loved veteran drove
at the same race where he won the year before, and won himself. McMurray also
got himself a pretty and pretty official fan in the outgoing Miss Winston.
Ganassi/SABCO is obviously the Dodge team on top. McMurray managed only one
other top ten after the National 500 win, so the grind of the season started to
wear down the adrenaline high of the early success. But obviously McMurray is
another up-and-comer streaking to success in a bolt of lightning. Marlin, for
his part, has something to prove after his injury, while Casey Mears is the
question mark, driving the #41 car that under performed all season and has under performed
basically its entire career with Ganassi.
JASPER MOTORSPORTS – Ford
#77 Dave Blaney
Now let me see if I have this straight – this team will still get its engines
from Penske’s engine shop even though it is still a Ford and Penske is now
running Dodges. I’m not sure how this will work out, so this team, a scrappy
comer despite lack of resources, may have some trouble looming.
PETTY ENTERPRISES – Dodge
#43 John Andretti
#44 Christian Fittipaldi
#45 Kyle Petty
Consider this – Kyle Petty had one top ten, and in the points finished well
ahead of two drivers who ran the full season, had multiple top fives, and had
won races. This best displays how Petty Enterprises’ stats don’t tell the whole
story of how much this team has improved in the course of a season. Kyle’s
efforts curiously petered out after the Dixie 500 at Atlanta, but the major
changes after 2001 began bearing fruit for him and his teammates.
John Andretti became a silly season target but will stay with the #43 and
gets a new crew chief in Gary Putnam, formerly with the #4 outfit. One of a
handful of drivers who isn’t afraid to pass three wide up the middle, John
nearly won Sears Point and was stout at Daytona and Talladega and several other
tracks.
The #44 started with Buckshot Jones and began to roar forward rather
dramatically at Vegas, Atlanta, and Darlington, but was swatted out of top tens
by other circumstances. Jones’ release proved a mistake, as the #44 never got
the stability needed, though Jerry Nadeau’s tenure got much of it back.
The Petty team should win a race in 2003, and maybe more than one. CART
castoff Christian Fittipaldi will run a mixed ARCA and Grand National tour with
five or seven Cup starts, but may wind up with more, as short fields may make
NASCAR "persuade" the Pettys to field the #44 to fill out 43 starters;
such would certainly help Christian get much-needed seat time.
WOOD BROTHERS RACING – Ford
#21 Ricky Rudd
The Wood Brothers team finished second twice in the first five races, but
managed only five other top tens – this despite some spectacular moments such as
leading late at NHIS. Ricky Rudd takes over the #21 after some trash-talk about
previous driver Elliott Sadler, looking for another win after three such the
last two years.
BILL DAVIS RACING – Dodge
#22 Ward Burton
#23 Kenny Wallace
He won the Daytona 500 and the New England 300 – and Ward Burton had a dismal
season, at least to a lot of observers. Burton had a total of eight top tens and
by the Autumn 500 at Talladega had a "new" crew chief, who wasn’t new
to the family, since Frank Stoddard had won a lot of races for Jeff Burton.
Hut Stricklin drove the #23 for the majority of the year and was instrumental
in getting BDR’s short track program competitive. Kenny Wallace replaces him
with Stacker 2 sponsorship, but this is a mistake, as Herman The German is not
capable of Winston Cup success (timidity in traffic is his forte and that won’t
win anything), and will likely be replaced by season’s end by Scott Wimmer,
groomed for Winston Cup by Bill Davis in Grand National.
Ward should win another race, but the ace in the hole may be Wimmer.
MORTON-BOWERS-VALVOLINE RACING – Pontiac
#10 Johnny Benson
#01 Jerry Nadeau
Johnny Benson got hurt at Richmond and missed five races, but broke through
to his first win, at Rockingham in November. Benson proved to be the only spark
for the team, as Ken Schrader led handily at the Daytona 500 and was basically
never heard from again; he did, though, start nickel-and-diming top fifteens in
the final half of the year.
This is the only Pontiac team that is only changing body styles from 2002;
everything else stays intact. Jerry Nadeau’s up-and-down 2002 sees him land with
a superspeedway-only sponsorship package from the Army; that it does not cover
the full season (though it may wind up doing so anyway) is a disturbing sign for
the future.
Nadeau nonetheless is the likeliest to win in 2003 on this team.
MORGAN-MCCLURE MOTORSPORTS – Pontiac
#4 Mike Skinner
Believe it or not, Mike Skinner actually had a top ten finish in 2002. That’s
about all that can be said of a dismal effort and a driver effectively
eliminated from Winston Cup victory hope. The team will run Pontiacs, the first
time since July 1990 it will run something other than Chevrolet, but it is
impossible to envision any kind of competitive consistency here. This team had
an opportunity in 1997 to form a second team, and refused to do so; now it is
far too late.
ANDY PETREE RACING – Chevrolet
#55 Bobby Hamilton (2002)
In all but the legal sense, 2002 was the year Andy Petree Racing died. Bobby
Hamilton managed three top tens but the team was all but stillborn in February,
thin on resources, its #33 team disbanded after the Carolina 400, and Petree in
over his head on team ownership, His negotiations with Dallas Cowboys owner
Jerry Jones were an embarrassment and blew up in his face, and there is no
realistic prospect of this team lasting beyond the Daytona 500.
BRETT BODINE RACING – Ford
#11 Brett Bodine
Brett failed to make four late-season races; thus is his team all but dead.
Bob Brooks may purchase it, and Brett may not even be its driver anymore.
Winston Cup obviously does not want a driver like Brett; a tour in the USAR
short track series Brooks’ companies sponsor may be what he needs to rejuvenate
his racing.
TRAVIS CARTER RACING – Ford
#26 Todd Bodine
KMart’s bankruptcy destroyed this team, but Todd Bodine still managed a top
five and three other top tens. Discover Card jumped on board, but could not
justify staying (another ominous sign for the sport; a company that can’t
justify a Winston Cup effort?) and no sponsor is on any horizon.
AJ FOYT ENTERPRISES – Dodge
#14 Larry Foyt
A.J. jumped in way over his head in NASCAR, and it still shows. 2001 was a
respectful year as Ron Hornaday showed muscle, but since then Foyt’s team has
been terrible, even though Mike Wallace did manage a superb top ten at Bristol
and also shone at Homestead. Larry Foyt takes over, with Harrah’s sponsorship,
but there isn’t much reason to expect big things here.
BAM RACING – Dodge
#49 Ken Schrader
NOL expressed surprise that Shawna Robinson was not given more races with
this team; the surprise is that they ever considered her at all. Ken Schrader
takes over, but this is a desperation move, as this team does not have anything
to run up front.
Thus do we have the lineup for Winston Cup’s 2003 season. Only 40 teams
listed have any realistic chance of running the full schedule, so short fields
will become a problem at points in 2003 as in 2002. Aero-matching and stricter
body-placement rules add another wrinkle to things, so with testing coming, the
first clues for 2003 should come our way as we wait out the interregnum before engines
fire at Daytona.